Trader consensus on the Madrid temperature market centers on 35–36°C for August 19 because the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate a stable high-pressure regime with mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near the upper end of seasonal norms. Recent observations show Madrid highs consistently in the low-to-mid 30s°C through mid-August without notable heat advection or cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Warmer-than-average summer conditions noted by Spanish meteorological services reinforce this range while limiting upside risk to 37°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will refine the final implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
36°C 43%
35°C 30%
37°C 18%
34°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
10%
35°C
30%
36°C
43%
37°C
18%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 43%
35°C 30%
37°C 18%
34°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
$414 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$261 Обс.
2%
34°C
$254 Обс.
10%
35°C
$1,150 Обс.
30%
36°C
$3,059 Обс.
43%
37°C
$1,435 Обс.
18%
38°C
$502 Обс.
3%
39°C
$335 Обс.
1%
40°C
$63 Обс.
<1%
41°C
$125 Обс.
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Madrid temperature market centers on 35–36°C for August 19 because the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate a stable high-pressure regime with mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near the upper end of seasonal norms. Recent observations show Madrid highs consistently in the low-to-mid 30s°C through mid-August without notable heat advection or cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Warmer-than-average summer conditions noted by Spanish meteorological services reinforce this range while limiting upside risk to 37°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will refine the final implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,724Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Madrid temperature market centers on 35–36°C for August 19 because the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate a stable high-pressure regime with mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near the upper end of seasonal norms. Recent observations show Madrid highs consistently in the low-to-mid 30s°C through mid-August without notable heat advection or cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Warmer-than-average summer conditions noted by Spanish meteorological services reinforce this range while limiting upside risk to 37°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will refine the final implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,724Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Madrid temperature market centers on 35–36°C for August 19 because the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs indicate a stable high-pressure regime with mostly clear skies and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near the upper end of seasonal norms. Recent observations show Madrid highs consistently in the low-to-mid 30s°C through mid-August without notable heat advection or cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Warmer-than-average summer conditions noted by Spanish meteorological services reinforce this range while limiting upside risk to 37°C or higher. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours will refine the final implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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