Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a Tokyo high of 29–31°C for August 17, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities favoring 29°C (30.5%) and 30°C (43.5%). Persistent summer humidity, urban heat island effects, and typical late-August steering patterns support these outcomes, while potential afternoon cloud cover or thundershowers could cap peaks near 30°C. Historical averages for the period hover around 31°C, but recent model runs show slightly cooler guidance amid variable Pacific high pressure. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts ahead of the date will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
30°C 41%
29°C 31%
31°C 11%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
9%
29°C
31%
30°C
41%
31°C
11%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 41%
29°C 31%
31°C 11%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$800 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$324 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$156 Обс.
1%
27°C
$467 Обс.
4%
28°C
$305 Обс.
9%
29°C
$717 Обс.
31%
30°C
$1,033 Обс.
41%
31°C
$290 Обс.
11%
32°C
$208 Обс.
3%
33°C
$216 Обс.
1%
34°C or higher
$296 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a Tokyo high of 29–31°C for August 17, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities favoring 29°C (30.5%) and 30°C (43.5%). Persistent summer humidity, urban heat island effects, and typical late-August steering patterns support these outcomes, while potential afternoon cloud cover or thundershowers could cap peaks near 30°C. Historical averages for the period hover around 31°C, but recent model runs show slightly cooler guidance amid variable Pacific high pressure. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts ahead of the date will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,812Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a Tokyo high of 29–31°C for August 17, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities favoring 29°C (30.5%) and 30°C (43.5%). Persistent summer humidity, urban heat island effects, and typical late-August steering patterns support these outcomes, while potential afternoon cloud cover or thundershowers could cap peaks near 30°C. Historical averages for the period hover around 31°C, but recent model runs show slightly cooler guidance amid variable Pacific high pressure. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts ahead of the date will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,812Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a Tokyo high of 29–31°C for August 17, 2026, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities favoring 29°C (30.5%) and 30°C (43.5%). Persistent summer humidity, urban heat island effects, and typical late-August steering patterns support these outcomes, while potential afternoon cloud cover or thundershowers could cap peaks near 30°C. Historical averages for the period hover around 31°C, but recent model runs show slightly cooler guidance amid variable Pacific high pressure. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble forecasts ahead of the date will provide the key data shifts traders are monitoring for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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