**Forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, along with official outlooks from Spain’s AEMET and sources such as the UK Met Office, place Madrid’s July 10 maximum in the mid-30s Celsius, with ensemble spreads centering near 36–37 °C.** A persistent subtropical ridge supports strong subsidence warming and clear skies, while weak Atlantic flow limits stronger cooling; however, small differences in the timing or strength of any short-wave trough or increased boundary-layer moisture can trim the peak by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 32–35 °C provide context, yet current conditions favor an above-normal outcome. Trader positioning remains tight between 35 °C and 37 °C precisely because the latest model runs show overlapping solutions within that narrow window, with resolution depending on the final 48-hour forecast updates from global and regional ensembles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on July 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 10?
36°C 63%
35°C 21%
37°C 15%
38°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$35,955 Обс.
НОВЕ
$35,955 Обс.
Jul 10, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
21%
36°C
63%
37°C
15%
38°C
4%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 63%
35°C 21%
37°C 15%
38°C 3.9%
НОВЕ
$35,955 Обс.
НОВЕ
$35,955 Обс.
Jul 10, 2026
32°C or below
$1,545 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$1,176 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$3,781 Обс.
1%
35°C
$5,194 Обс.
21%
36°C
$10,683 Обс.
63%
37°C
$4,641 Обс.
15%
38°C
$2,659 Обс.
4%
39°C
$1,503 Обс.
<1%
40°C
$1,882 Обс.
<1%
41°C
$1,330 Обс.
<1%
42°C or higher
$1,570 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, along with official outlooks from Spain’s AEMET and sources such as the UK Met Office, place Madrid’s July 10 maximum in the mid-30s Celsius, with ensemble spreads centering near 36–37 °C.** A persistent subtropical ridge supports strong subsidence warming and clear skies, while weak Atlantic flow limits stronger cooling; however, small differences in the timing or strength of any short-wave trough or increased boundary-layer moisture can trim the peak by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 32–35 °C provide context, yet current conditions favor an above-normal outcome. Trader positioning remains tight between 35 °C and 37 °C precisely because the latest model runs show overlapping solutions within that narrow window, with resolution depending on the final 48-hour forecast updates from global and regional ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$35,955Дата завершення
Jul 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, along with official outlooks from Spain’s AEMET and sources such as the UK Met Office, place Madrid’s July 10 maximum in the mid-30s Celsius, with ensemble spreads centering near 36–37 °C.** A persistent subtropical ridge supports strong subsidence warming and clear skies, while weak Atlantic flow limits stronger cooling; however, small differences in the timing or strength of any short-wave trough or increased boundary-layer moisture can trim the peak by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 32–35 °C provide context, yet current conditions favor an above-normal outcome. Trader positioning remains tight between 35 °C and 37 °C precisely because the latest model runs show overlapping solutions within that narrow window, with resolution depending on the final 48-hour forecast updates from global and regional ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$35,955Дата завершення
Jul 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS, along with official outlooks from Spain’s AEMET and sources such as the UK Met Office, place Madrid’s July 10 maximum in the mid-30s Celsius, with ensemble spreads centering near 36–37 °C.** A persistent subtropical ridge supports strong subsidence warming and clear skies, while weak Atlantic flow limits stronger cooling; however, small differences in the timing or strength of any short-wave trough or increased boundary-layer moisture can trim the peak by 1–2 °C. Historical July averages near 32–35 °C provide context, yet current conditions favor an above-normal outcome. Trader positioning remains tight between 35 °C and 37 °C precisely because the latest model runs show overlapping solutions within that narrow window, with resolution depending on the final 48-hour forecast updates from global and regional ensembles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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