Recent Houthi territorial gains near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, including control of Mokha and nearby islands since September 2026, have sustained elevated war-risk insurance premiums and prompted partial rerouting of Asia-Europe container traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, raising freight costs and extending transit times. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 46% implied probability for a confirmed strike or seizure by November 30, 2026, incorporates the pause in verified attacks on commercial vessels since the August 24 strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan, alongside recovering Suez Canal volumes that reached 1,228 transits in September. Key catalysts include potential further Houthi operations against Saudi-linked shipping, coalition responses, and shifts in Brent crude benchmarks amid ongoing Red Sea disruptions and alternative pipeline pressures.