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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.5%

Немає Глави держави 4.3%

Реза Пехлеві 3.4%

Аліреза Арафі 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,639,307 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.5%

Немає Глави держави 4.3%

Реза Пехлеві 3.4%

Аліреза Арафі 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,639,307 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$6,044,064 Обс.

83%

Немає Глави держави

$1,148,676 Обс.

4%

Реза Пехлеві

$672,396 Обс.

3%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,311,688 Обс.

2%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$1,120,634 Обс.

2%

Хасан Рухані

$944,728 Обс.

1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$776,835 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,425,383 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$1,020,011 Обс.

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$918,080 Обс.

1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$437,515 Обс.

<1%

Аббас Арагчі

$833,512 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$535,501 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$3,143,945 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$804,789 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$397,209 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,694,534 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$145,393 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$211,365 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$199,186 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$836,226 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$433,350 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,346,906 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$239,231 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$384,741 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,192,090 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$281,762 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$254,575 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$306,671 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$341,451 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Supreme Leader, secured through a March 2026 Assembly of Experts vote shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, underpins the dominant trader consensus for continuity through year-end. IRGC backing and the need for regime cohesion amid active conflict elevated him despite limited clerical credentials and dynastic concerns. Persistent questions over his health—including reported leg and facial injuries from the initial attack—have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or a leadership vacuum, yet no formal challenge or replacement process has advanced. With the Assembly’s decisive selection and institutional continuity mechanisms in place, traders price high stability through the remaining months of 2026 absent major escalation or verified incapacity.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,639,307
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s position as Supreme Leader, secured through a March 2026 Assembly of Experts vote shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February US-Israeli strikes, underpins the dominant trader consensus for continuity through year-end. IRGC backing and the need for regime cohesion amid active conflict elevated him despite limited clerical credentials and dynastic concerns. Persistent questions over his health—including reported leg and facial injuries from the initial attack—have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or a leadership vacuum, yet no formal challenge or replacement process has advanced. With the Assembly’s decisive selection and institutional continuity mechanisms in place, traders price high stability through the remaining months of 2026 absent major escalation or verified incapacity.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,639,307
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 83%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $38.6 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 83%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.