Despite U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon commencing on April 14, 2026—the first since 1993—and a fragile ceasefire initiated April 16 and extended into May, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on full normalization before 2027, pricing "No" at 77.5%. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam explicitly rejected normalization on May 6, framing negotiations as aimed at peace and stability rather than diplomatic ties, amid demands for Hezbollah disarmament that remain unmet. Ongoing border violations, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon as recently as May 12 and Hezbollah threats, underscore persistent hostilities. Hezbollah's influence, territorial disputes, and Lebanon's domestic opposition represent formidable barriers to a comprehensive treaty, with talks limited to truce monitoring and border demarcation.