Israel and the United States initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military targets, air defenses, and leadership on February 28, 2026, in an operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The ensuing conflict featured extensive aerial campaigns, strikes on energy infrastructure, and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but remained centered on air and missile exchanges rather than sustained ground incursions into Iranian territory. Israel conducted limited ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon during the same period, yet reports of Pentagon planning for short-duration raids or seizures of coastal assets in Iran did not result in confirmed deployments. Ceasefire arrangements in April–May and subsequent diplomatic efforts have reduced direct hostilities, though periodic threats of renewed strikes persist into August 2026. Any confirmation of an Israeli ground operation would hinge on verifiable official statements or footage of forces crossing into Iran proper, distinct from proxy or Lebanese actions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоІзраїльська наземна операція в Ірані підтверджена...?
$1,732,452 Обс.
August 31
1%
December 31
17%
$1,732,452 Обс.
August 31
1%
December 31
17%
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and the United States initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military targets, air defenses, and leadership on February 28, 2026, in an operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region. The ensuing conflict featured extensive aerial campaigns, strikes on energy infrastructure, and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but remained centered on air and missile exchanges rather than sustained ground incursions into Iranian territory. Israel conducted limited ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon during the same period, yet reports of Pentagon planning for short-duration raids or seizures of coastal assets in Iran did not result in confirmed deployments. Ceasefire arrangements in April–May and subsequent diplomatic efforts have reduced direct hostilities, though periodic threats of renewed strikes persist into August 2026. Any confirmation of an Israeli ground operation would hinge on verifiable official statements or footage of forces crossing into Iran proper, distinct from proxy or Lebanese actions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено



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