Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and local agencies point to a cold front and northerly winds arriving September 7–8, bringing widespread rain and dropping Beijing’s overnight minimum well below the late-summer average of 17–18 °C. Multiple runs now converge on lows near 14–16 °C, with daytime highs only reaching the low 20s, consistent with the historical range for early-September cool outbreaks. This atmospheric shift, rather than typical southerly flow, underpins the market’s elevated implied odds for the 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes while leaving room for model revisions or localized urban heat effects to push the official minimum higher. Updated NMC and international guidance ahead of the 8th will be the key near-term catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
12°C or below 100%
22°C or higher 96%
13°C 49%
17°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 8, 2026
12°C or below
100%
13°C
49%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
49%
18°C
49%
19°C
49%
20°C
1%
21°C
49%
22°C or higher
96%
12°C or below 100%
22°C or higher 96%
13°C 49%
17°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 8, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Обс.
100%
13°C
$0 Обс.
49%
14°C
$0 Обс.
26%
15°C
$0 Обс.
26%
16°C
$0 Обс.
26%
17°C
$0 Обс.
49%
18°C
$0 Обс.
49%
19°C
$0 Обс.
49%
20°C
$0 Обс.
1%
21°C
$0 Обс.
49%
22°C or higher
$0 Обс.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and local agencies point to a cold front and northerly winds arriving September 7–8, bringing widespread rain and dropping Beijing’s overnight minimum well below the late-summer average of 17–18 °C. Multiple runs now converge on lows near 14–16 °C, with daytime highs only reaching the low 20s, consistent with the historical range for early-September cool outbreaks. This atmospheric shift, rather than typical southerly flow, underpins the market’s elevated implied odds for the 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes while leaving room for model revisions or localized urban heat effects to push the official minimum higher. Updated NMC and international guidance ahead of the 8th will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and local agencies point to a cold front and northerly winds arriving September 7–8, bringing widespread rain and dropping Beijing’s overnight minimum well below the late-summer average of 17–18 °C. Multiple runs now converge on lows near 14–16 °C, with daytime highs only reaching the low 20s, consistent with the historical range for early-September cool outbreaks. This atmospheric shift, rather than typical southerly flow, underpins the market’s elevated implied odds for the 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes while leaving room for model revisions or localized urban heat effects to push the official minimum higher. Updated NMC and international guidance ahead of the 8th will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and local agencies point to a cold front and northerly winds arriving September 7–8, bringing widespread rain and dropping Beijing’s overnight minimum well below the late-summer average of 17–18 °C. Multiple runs now converge on lows near 14–16 °C, with daytime highs only reaching the low 20s, consistent with the historical range for early-September cool outbreaks. This atmospheric shift, rather than typical southerly flow, underpins the market’s elevated implied odds for the 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes while leaving room for model revisions or localized urban heat effects to push the official minimum higher. Updated NMC and international guidance ahead of the 8th will be the key near-term catalyst.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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