**Typical summer climatology and current forecast guidance strongly support trader consensus around a daily minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 8, 2026.** Hong Kong’s August overnight lows normally range 26–28°C amid persistent high humidity and weak synoptic gradients, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook indicating normal-to-above-normal temperatures through the period. Model consensus and recent observational trends show no significant cooling mechanisms—such as a strong northeasterly surge or organized convection—expected to drive the minimum below this threshold. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects this narrow historical and forecast distribution, where deviations to 26–27°C remain possible but statistically uncommon without an unforecasted atmospheric shift. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory measurements; only an atypical nocturnal radiative cooling episode or localized shower-induced drop would realistically alter the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
28°C 98%
26°C 1.1%
27°C 1.0%
25°C <1%
$81,339 Обс.
$81,339 Обс.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
98%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 98%
26°C 1.1%
27°C 1.0%
25°C <1%
$81,339 Обс.
$81,339 Обс.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
$598 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$1,214 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$4,140 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$6,272 Обс.
1%
26°C
$4,587 Обс.
1%
27°C
$12,236 Обс.
1%
28°C
$21,819 Обс.
98%
29°C
$23,530 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$5,364 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$938 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$641 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Typical summer climatology and current forecast guidance strongly support trader consensus around a daily minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 8, 2026.** Hong Kong’s August overnight lows normally range 26–28°C amid persistent high humidity and weak synoptic gradients, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook indicating normal-to-above-normal temperatures through the period. Model consensus and recent observational trends show no significant cooling mechanisms—such as a strong northeasterly surge or organized convection—expected to drive the minimum below this threshold. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects this narrow historical and forecast distribution, where deviations to 26–27°C remain possible but statistically uncommon without an unforecasted atmospheric shift. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory measurements; only an atypical nocturnal radiative cooling episode or localized shower-induced drop would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$81,339Дата завершення
Aug 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Typical summer climatology and current forecast guidance strongly support trader consensus around a daily minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 8, 2026.** Hong Kong’s August overnight lows normally range 26–28°C amid persistent high humidity and weak synoptic gradients, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook indicating normal-to-above-normal temperatures through the period. Model consensus and recent observational trends show no significant cooling mechanisms—such as a strong northeasterly surge or organized convection—expected to drive the minimum below this threshold. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects this narrow historical and forecast distribution, where deviations to 26–27°C remain possible but statistically uncommon without an unforecasted atmospheric shift. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory measurements; only an atypical nocturnal radiative cooling episode or localized shower-induced drop would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$81,339Дата завершення
Aug 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Typical summer climatology and current forecast guidance strongly support trader consensus around a daily minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 8, 2026.** Hong Kong’s August overnight lows normally range 26–28°C amid persistent high humidity and weak synoptic gradients, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook indicating normal-to-above-normal temperatures through the period. Model consensus and recent observational trends show no significant cooling mechanisms—such as a strong northeasterly surge or organized convection—expected to drive the minimum below this threshold. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects this narrow historical and forecast distribution, where deviations to 26–27°C remain possible but statistically uncommon without an unforecasted atmospheric shift. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory measurements; only an atypical nocturnal radiative cooling episode or localized shower-induced drop would realistically alter the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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