Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–37°C on August 10 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, aligning with the market’s leading 36–37°C outcomes (73% combined implied probability). These conditions reflect typical mid-August continental Mediterranean patterns, with daytime solar heating moderated by the city’s elevation and urban heat island effects but without strong advection of hotter air masses. Ensemble guidance shows minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns, supporting limited upside beyond 38°C while capping downside below 35°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 10?
37°C 44%
36°C 29%
38°C 19%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
7%
36°C
29%
37°C
44%
38°C
19%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 44%
36°C 29%
38°C 19%
35°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 10, 2026
31°C or below
$77 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$34 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$5 Обс.
2%
34°C
$10 Обс.
2%
35°C
$149 Обс.
7%
36°C
$724 Обс.
29%
37°C
$1,494 Обс.
44%
38°C
$336 Обс.
19%
39°C
$59 Обс.
3%
40°C
$249 Обс.
1%
41°C or higher
$26 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–37°C on August 10 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, aligning with the market’s leading 36–37°C outcomes (73% combined implied probability). These conditions reflect typical mid-August continental Mediterranean patterns, with daytime solar heating moderated by the city’s elevation and urban heat island effects but without strong advection of hotter air masses. Ensemble guidance shows minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns, supporting limited upside beyond 38°C while capping downside below 35°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,161Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–37°C on August 10 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, aligning with the market’s leading 36–37°C outcomes (73% combined implied probability). These conditions reflect typical mid-August continental Mediterranean patterns, with daytime solar heating moderated by the city’s elevation and urban heat island effects but without strong advection of hotter air masses. Ensemble guidance shows minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns, supporting limited upside beyond 38°C while capping downside below 35°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,161Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid highs of 34–37°C on August 10 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds, aligning with the market’s leading 36–37°C outcomes (73% combined implied probability). These conditions reflect typical mid-August continental Mediterranean patterns, with daytime solar heating moderated by the city’s elevation and urban heat island effects but without strong advection of hotter air masses. Ensemble guidance shows minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns, supporting limited upside beyond 38°C while capping downside below 35°C. Updated model runs and official briefings through the weekend will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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