Trader consensus strongly favors "No" for a new pandemic in 2026 at 89.5% implied probability, anchored by the World Health Organization's (WHO) lack of any pandemic declaration midway through the year, per market resolution criteria. Recent ECDC and WHO updates on May 13–14 detail an Andes hantavirus cluster tied to cruise ship travel, with 11 cases (eight confirmed laboratory, three deaths) across countries, but officials emphasize its rare human-to-human transmission via prolonged close contact and low risk of wider spread—CDC deems U.S. outbreak "extremely unlikely." Regional threats like avian influenza A(H5N1) and mpox persist without global escalation, bolstered by post-COVID surveillance gains. Watch WHO epidemiological reports through year-end for shifts in novel pathogen trajectories.