The upcoming October 27 Knesset elections and subsequent coalition negotiations drive the evenly matched odds across numerous candidates for Israel's next Minister of National Security. Current holder Itamar Ben-Gvir has signaled a shift toward seeking the Defense Ministry for his Otzma Yehudit party, naming MK Yitzhak Wasserlauf as a potential successor to maintain continuity on police and internal security policy. This leaves the portfolio open amid competing claims from Likud figures and other right-wing partners, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over electoral results, seat shares, and bargaining dynamics. The 24% price on no appointment by late February underscores procedural timelines, while the spread across options highlights how post-election horse-trading could quickly consolidate support for one contender.