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Технологія·OpenAI

Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?

icon for Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
Технологія·OpenAI

Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$104,407 Обс.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$104,407 Обс.

Polymarket

1450+

$23,017 Обс.

71%

1470+

$25,674 Обс.

66%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's trader sentiment on LMArena (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) debuts reflects the company's pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models via unnamed "gpt" entries for blind Elo benchmarking before public rollout, allowing crowd-voted capability assessments amid fierce rivalry with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which holds the #1 spot at 1504 Elo as of early May 2026. GPT-5.5, launched April 23 with agentic tool-use and reasoning advances, integrated into Arena shortly after, landing #7 overall, #3 in math, and #9 in code—solid but not dominant, prompting bets on stealthier next-model previews. No new anonymous OpenAI entrants in the past 30 days; watch for leaks or API previews signaling successors like realtime voice models, with monthly release cadence heightening uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$104,407
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".OpenAI's trader sentiment on LMArena (formerly LMSYS Chatbot Arena) debuts reflects the company's pattern of anonymously testing frontier large language models via unnamed "gpt" entries for blind Elo benchmarking before public rollout, allowing crowd-voted capability assessments amid fierce rivalry with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, which holds the #1 spot at 1504 Elo as of early May 2026. GPT-5.5, launched April 23 with agentic tool-use and reasoning advances, integrated into Arena shortly after, landing #7 overall, #3 in math, and #9 in code—solid but not dominant, prompting bets on stealthier next-model previews. No new anonymous OpenAI entrants in the past 30 days; watch for leaks or API previews signaling successors like realtime voice models, with monthly release cadence heightening uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$104,407
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 5 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1450+» з 71%, далі «1470+» з 66%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?» згенерував $104.4K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку May 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?», перегляньте 5 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?» — «1450+» з 71%. Наступний — «1470+» з 66%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.