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Технологія·5.6

Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?

icon for Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?
Технологія·5.6

Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?

НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$287 Обс.

Polymarket

1480+

$287 Обс.

73%

1500+

$0 Обс.

46%

1520+

$0 Обс.

45%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 family, including the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant update and earlier GPT-5.4 mini rollout, remains the main driver shaping odds for the next model’s first appearance on TextArena. Traders track how quickly OpenAI submits new variants to the platform’s 57+ competitive text-game environments, where models demonstrate agentic capabilities through TrueSkill rankings against rivals like Claude and Gemini. Recent internal safety reviews and benchmark focus on reasoning modes and extended context windows have tempered release speed expectations, while TextArena’s open leaderboard provides a transparent, real-time signal of deployment readiness. Upcoming OpenAI announcements or API updates could accelerate or delay a debut, particularly if new models emphasize tool use or multi-agent play that aligns with TextArena’s evaluation criteria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$287
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s rapid iteration on the GPT-5 family, including the May 2026 GPT-5.5 Instant update and earlier GPT-5.4 mini rollout, remains the main driver shaping odds for the next model’s first appearance on TextArena. Traders track how quickly OpenAI submits new variants to the platform’s 57+ competitive text-game environments, where models demonstrate agentic capabilities through TrueSkill rankings against rivals like Claude and Gemini. Recent internal safety reviews and benchmark focus on reasoning modes and extended context windows have tempered release speed expectations, while TextArena’s open leaderboard provides a transparent, real-time signal of deployment readiness. Upcoming OpenAI announcements or API updates could accelerate or delay a debut, particularly if new models emphasize tool use or multi-agent play that aligns with TextArena’s evaluation criteria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$287
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to OpenAI and have “GPT” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, gpt-5.6-high, chatgpt-6o-latest, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to OpenAI, or OpenAI models whose displayed name does not include “GPT,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 3 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1480+» з 73%, далі «1500+» з 46%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Jun 23, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?», перегляньте 3 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?» — «1480+» з 73%. Наступний — «1500+» з 46%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Next GPT Model: Text Arena Debut?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.