President Aleksandar Vučić’s June 2026 announcement that he would resign within weeks and trigger early presidential and parliamentary elections has anchored trader expectations for a snap vote well before the statutory December 2027 deadline. Sustained student-led protests since late 2024, intensified by the Novi Sad station collapse and demands for a fresh mandate, have kept pressure on the ruling Serbian Progressive Party to dissolve the National Assembly. Vučić has repeatedly floated timelines including autumn 2026 or within three to four months of his statement, consistent with Serbia’s recent pattern of multiple snap parliamentary elections under stable majorities. These official signals and ongoing political dynamics explain the current 80% implied probability for an election called before 2027.