President Aleksandar Vučić’s repeated public signals that parliamentary elections will occur in 2026 have anchored trader consensus at an 82.5 percent probability for a vote before the scheduled December 2027 deadline. In early May he outlined a broad reform program covering government, education, and energy, then announced he would decide within ten days whether to dissolve the National Assembly. Consultations with coalition partners and smaller parties followed his April suggestion of a June or autumn timeline. These moves respond to sustained student-led protests that began after the November 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and have kept pressure for early polls. Although no formal dissolution has occurred, the combination of Vučić’s statements and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party’s strong showing in March local elections has convinced markets that a snap contest is the most likely outcome.