**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоThird-best AI Lab end of November?
Third-best AI Lab end of November?
Mistral 60%
Alibaba 50%
Meituan 49%
DeepSeek 48%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Mistral
60%
Alibaba
50%
Meituan
49%
DeepSeek
48%
Anthropic
37%
MiniMax
34%
32%
StepFun
27%
Moonshot
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
Thinky
23%
Nvidia
19%
Meta
17%
Baidu
16%
Amazon
16%
Microsoft
15%
Z.ai
13%
Xiaomi
13%
Tencent
13%
ByteDance
24%
OpenAI
9%
Mistral 60%
Alibaba 50%
Meituan 49%
DeepSeek 48%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Mistral
$37 Обс.
60%
Alibaba
$37 Обс.
50%
Meituan
$37 Обс.
49%
DeepSeek
$37 Обс.
48%
Anthropic
$37 Обс.
37%
MiniMax
$37 Обс.
34%
$37 Обс.
32%
StepFun
$37 Обс.
27%
Moonshot
$37 Обс.
26%
SpaceXAI
$37 Обс.
26%
Thinky
$37 Обс.
23%
Nvidia
$37 Обс.
19%
Meta
$37 Обс.
17%
Baidu
$37 Обс.
16%
Amazon
$37 Обс.
16%
Microsoft
$37 Обс.
15%
Z.ai
$37 Обс.
13%
Xiaomi
$37 Обс.
13%
Tencent
$37 Обс.
13%
ByteDance
$46 Обс.
24%
OpenAI
$37 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$793Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$793Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the third-best AI lab by end of November reflects a tightly contested frontier where benchmark leadership, model releases, and cost-efficiency gains keep multiple contenders in play.** Recent leaderboards show Anthropic’s Claude variants and OpenAI’s GPT-6 family trading top spots on reasoning and coding tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot’s Kimi, and Alibaba’s Qwen deliver strong open-weight or lower-cost alternatives that narrow the U.S.-China capability gap to single-digit percentages on key metrics. High implied probabilities across numerous labs signal that traders view differentiation as driven less by raw intelligence scores and more by reliability, deployment scale, and developer adoption ahead of the November resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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