President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to begin resuming U.S. nuclear explosive testing after more than three decades of moratorium, citing activities by Russia and China. No such test has occurred as of mid-2026. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site remain limited, with the National Nuclear Security Administration lacking dedicated recent funding for rapid test readiness and experts estimating months to years for full underground capability. Stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify the arsenal without explosive testing. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and adherence to the voluntary zero-yield standard under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework further constrain near-term action. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test by December 31, 2026 remains unlikely absent major escalatory developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$770,068 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
4%
$770,068 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,189 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$52,068 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to begin resuming U.S. nuclear explosive testing after more than three decades of moratorium, citing activities by Russia and China. No such test has occurred as of mid-2026. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site remain limited, with the National Nuclear Security Administration lacking dedicated recent funding for rapid test readiness and experts estimating months to years for full underground capability. Stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify the arsenal without explosive testing. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and adherence to the voluntary zero-yield standard under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework further constrain near-term action. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test by December 31, 2026 remains unlikely absent major escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to begin resuming U.S. nuclear explosive testing after more than three decades of moratorium, citing activities by Russia and China. No such test has occurred as of mid-2026. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site remain limited, with the National Nuclear Security Administration lacking dedicated recent funding for rapid test readiness and experts estimating months to years for full underground capability. Stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify the arsenal without explosive testing. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and adherence to the voluntary zero-yield standard under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework further constrain near-term action. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test by December 31, 2026 remains unlikely absent major escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to begin resuming U.S. nuclear explosive testing after more than three decades of moratorium, citing activities by Russia and China. No such test has occurred as of mid-2026. Technical preparations at the Nevada National Security Site remain limited, with the National Nuclear Security Administration lacking dedicated recent funding for rapid test readiness and experts estimating months to years for full underground capability. Stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify the arsenal without explosive testing. Congressional oversight, state-level opposition in Nevada, and adherence to the voluntary zero-yield standard under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework further constrain near-term action. These factors underpin trader consensus that a test by December 31, 2026 remains unlikely absent major escalatory developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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