President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, underway as of May 14, has propelled trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability for a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, reflecting optimism from reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports. This builds on March Paris talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, which advanced de-escalation frameworks following 2025's multiple 90-day truces and reductions. Joint announcements expected by May 15 could formalize progress, though uncertainties persist around critical minerals access, rare earths, and Taiwan tensions, with historical patterns showing temporary pacts often extended amid bilateral negotiations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$44,863 Обс.
$44,863 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$44,863 Обс.
$44,863 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, underway as of May 14, has propelled trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability for a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, reflecting optimism from reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports. This builds on March Paris talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, which advanced de-escalation frameworks following 2025's multiple 90-day truces and reductions. Joint announcements expected by May 15 could formalize progress, though uncertainties persist around critical minerals access, rare earths, and Taiwan tensions, with historical patterns showing temporary pacts often extended amid bilateral negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$44,863Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, underway as of May 14, has propelled trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability for a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, reflecting optimism from reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports. This builds on March Paris talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, which advanced de-escalation frameworks following 2025's multiple 90-day truces and reductions. Joint announcements expected by May 15 could formalize progress, though uncertainties persist around critical minerals access, rare earths, and Taiwan tensions, with historical patterns showing temporary pacts often extended amid bilateral negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$44,863Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, underway as of May 14, has propelled trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability for a US-China tariff agreement by May 31, reflecting optimism from reports of planned tariff cuts on $30 billion in non-sensitive imports. This builds on March Paris talks between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, which advanced de-escalation frameworks following 2025's multiple 90-day truces and reductions. Joint announcements expected by May 15 could formalize progress, though uncertainties persist around critical minerals access, rare earths, and Taiwan tensions, with historical patterns showing temporary pacts often extended amid bilateral negotiations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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