This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.Trader consensus on Polymarket's "What will happen before GTA VI?" market hinges on Grand Theft Auto VI's firmly locked November 19, 2026, US launch date, following official delays from Fall 2025 and a now-stable development trajectory evidenced by Rockstar's recent tester hires in March. Recent hype stems from a purported Best Buy pre-order leak targeting May 18–21 and speculation around Trailer 3 dropping imminently, potentially tied to Take-Two Interactive's Q4 earnings call on May 21, signaling an aggressive marketing push without further postponement signals. With six months until release, probabilities reflect trader assessments of competing timelines for album drops (e.g., Drake's Iceman, Rihanna, Playboi Carti), tech milestones like GPT-6, and geopolitical events against GTA VI's fixed window, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in high-volume ($22M) wagers amid rapid pop culture shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's "What will happen before GTA VI?" market hinges on Grand Theft Auto VI's firmly locked November 19, 2026, US launch date, following official delays from Fall 2025 and a now-stable development trajectory evidenced by Rockstar's recent tester hires in March. Recent hype stems from a purported Best Buy pre-order leak targeting May 18–21 and speculation around Trailer 3 dropping imminently, potentially tied to Take-Two Interactive's Q4 earnings call on May 21, signaling an aggressive marketing push without further postponement signals. With six months until release, probabilities reflect trader assessments of competing timelines for album drops (e.g., Drake's Iceman, Rihanna, Playboi Carti), tech milestones like GPT-6, and geopolitical events against GTA VI's fixed window, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in high-volume ($22M) wagers amid rapid pop culture shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
K-pop group BTS announces comeback and new album release date
New Rihanna Album rises to 53%2%
BTS announced their comeback and new album release date for March 20, 2026, increasing market anticipation for new music releases, which could influence the New Rihanna Album outcome due to market crossover in music excitement.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trump’s political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunny’s album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
BTS world tour ticket presale announced for January 2026
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%8%
Announcement of BTS world tour ticket presale in January 2026 heightened market interest in new music events, indirectly affecting expectations for new albums including Rihanna's.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trump’s second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Dec 2 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice‑chairman
GPT-6 released jumps to 75%8%
Meta announced Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration official, as its new president and vice‑chairman, emphasizing her role in accelerating the company’s artificial‑intelligence initiatives, which lifted confidence in a forthcoming GPT‑6 release.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEA’s large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trump’s presidency market odds.
Following geopolitical developments in early November 2025, market confidence that China might invade Taiwan increased sharply from 18% to 50%, reflecting heightened diplomatic and military tensions in the region.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Cultural backlash intensifies against Trump’s immigration crackdown
Trump out as President surges to 51%21%
A wave of high‑profile criticism of President Trump’s immigration policies, including statements from artists and tech leaders, raised expectations that Trump might be removed from office, pushing the "Trump out as President" probability upward.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Trump administration faces major political challenges amid rising opposition
Trump out as President surges to 50%20%
In early November 2025, political developments increased market confidence that Trump would be out as President before GTA VI's release, reflected by a sharp price rise from 30% to 50%. This was driven by growing opposition and political instability.
Nov 6 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 62%4%
Meta's appointment of Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump adviser, in early November 2025 signaled strategic moves in tech and AI sectors, influencing market optimism about AI advancements including GPT-6 release.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
Jun 2 2025
Playboi Carti announces release date for long‑delayed third album "Music"
New Playboi Carti Album jumps to 68%8%
After a five‑year wait, Playboi Carti confirmed the release date of his third studio album, sparking a sharp rise in the market price for the "New Playboi Carti Album" outcome as traders anticipated the event’s impact on the GTA VI prediction market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.Trader consensus on Polymarket's "What will happen before GTA VI?" market hinges on Grand Theft Auto VI's firmly locked November 19, 2026, US launch date, following official delays from Fall 2025 and a now-stable development trajectory evidenced by Rockstar's recent tester hires in March. Recent hype stems from a purported Best Buy pre-order leak targeting May 18–21 and speculation around Trailer 3 dropping imminently, potentially tied to Take-Two Interactive's Q4 earnings call on May 21, signaling an aggressive marketing push without further postponement signals. With six months until release, probabilities reflect trader assessments of competing timelines for album drops (e.g., Drake's Iceman, Rihanna, Playboi Carti), tech milestones like GPT-6, and geopolitical events against GTA VI's fixed window, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in high-volume ($22M) wagers amid rapid pop culture shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's "What will happen before GTA VI?" market hinges on Grand Theft Auto VI's firmly locked November 19, 2026, US launch date, following official delays from Fall 2025 and a now-stable development trajectory evidenced by Rockstar's recent tester hires in March. Recent hype stems from a purported Best Buy pre-order leak targeting May 18–21 and speculation around Trailer 3 dropping imminently, potentially tied to Take-Two Interactive's Q4 earnings call on May 21, signaling an aggressive marketing push without further postponement signals. With six months until release, probabilities reflect trader assessments of competing timelines for album drops (e.g., Drake's Iceman, Rihanna, Playboi Carti), tech milestones like GPT-6, and geopolitical events against GTA VI's fixed window, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in high-volume ($22M) wagers amid rapid pop culture shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
K-pop group BTS announces comeback and new album release date
New Rihanna Album rises to 53%2%
BTS announced their comeback and new album release date for March 20, 2026, increasing market anticipation for new music releases, which could influence the New Rihanna Album outcome due to market crossover in music excitement.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trump’s political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunny’s album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
BTS world tour ticket presale announced for January 2026
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%8%
Announcement of BTS world tour ticket presale in January 2026 heightened market interest in new music events, indirectly affecting expectations for new albums including Rihanna's.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trump’s second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Dec 2 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice‑chairman
GPT-6 released jumps to 75%8%
Meta announced Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration official, as its new president and vice‑chairman, emphasizing her role in accelerating the company’s artificial‑intelligence initiatives, which lifted confidence in a forthcoming GPT‑6 release.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEA’s large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trump’s presidency market odds.
Following geopolitical developments in early November 2025, market confidence that China might invade Taiwan increased sharply from 18% to 50%, reflecting heightened diplomatic and military tensions in the region.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Cultural backlash intensifies against Trump’s immigration crackdown
Trump out as President surges to 51%21%
A wave of high‑profile criticism of President Trump’s immigration policies, including statements from artists and tech leaders, raised expectations that Trump might be removed from office, pushing the "Trump out as President" probability upward.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Trump administration faces major political challenges amid rising opposition
Trump out as President surges to 50%20%
In early November 2025, political developments increased market confidence that Trump would be out as President before GTA VI's release, reflected by a sharp price rise from 30% to 50%. This was driven by growing opposition and political instability.
Nov 6 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 62%4%
Meta's appointment of Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump adviser, in early November 2025 signaled strategic moves in tech and AI sectors, influencing market optimism about AI advancements including GPT-6 release.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
Jun 2 2025
Playboi Carti announces release date for long‑delayed third album "Music"
New Playboi Carti Album jumps to 68%8%
After a five‑year wait, Playboi Carti confirmed the release date of his third studio album, sparking a sharp rise in the market price for the "New Playboi Carti Album" outcome as traders anticipated the event’s impact on the GTA VI prediction market.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Що буде перед GTA VI?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Припинення вогню між Росією та Україною» з 100%, далі «Дрейк випускає Iceman» з 100%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Що буде перед GTA VI?» згенерував $22 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку May 2, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Що буде перед GTA VI?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Поточний фаворит для «Що буде перед GTA VI?» — «Припинення вогню між Росією та Україною» з 100%. Наступний — «Дрейк випускає Iceman» з 100%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.
Правила вирішення для «Що буде перед GTA VI?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Що буде перед GTA VI?». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $22 million торгового обсягу на «Що буде перед GTA VI?» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Що буде перед GTA VI?», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 100¢ для «Припинення вогню між Росією та Україною» на ринку «Що буде перед GTA VI?» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 100%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 100¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 0¢ за акцію.
Ринок «Що буде перед GTA VI?» запланований до вирішення приблизно Jul 31, 2026. Торгівля залишатиметься відкритою, а шанси продовжуватимуть змінюватися з появою нової інформації до цієї дати.
Ринок «Що буде перед GTA VI?» має активна спільнота з 849 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Що буде перед GTA VI?». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання