Anthropic’s dominant 71.1% implied probability stems from the Claude family’s recent gains on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, where independent evaluations have shown clear leads over rivals. Traders view these results, backed by consistent third-party testing, as the strongest signal of current large language model superiority heading into late June. Google sits at 22.0% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet lags in several capability metrics that matter most to market resolution. OpenAI at 6.0% and xAI at 1.1% trail further behind amid slower visible progress on flagship models. With potential new releases or benchmark drops before the cutoff, any surprise capability jump could narrow Anthropic’s lead, though current capital-weighted sentiment reflects its established edge in safety-focused performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯка компанія має найкращу модель ШІ наприкінці червня?
Яка компанія має найкращу модель ШІ наприкінці червня?
Anthropic 71.1%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,008,712 Обс.
$6,008,712 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
71%
21%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 71.1%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,008,712 Обс.
$6,008,712 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$845,914 Обс.
71%
$549,693 Обс.
21%
OpenAI
$343,745 Обс.
6%
xAI
$1,067,661 Обс.
1%
Meta
$136,796 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$504,487 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$163,557 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$303,591 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$483,603 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$156,705 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$160,174 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$383,409 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$364,375 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$382,466 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$165,558 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 71.1% implied probability stems from the Claude family’s recent gains on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, where independent evaluations have shown clear leads over rivals. Traders view these results, backed by consistent third-party testing, as the strongest signal of current large language model superiority heading into late June. Google sits at 22.0% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet lags in several capability metrics that matter most to market resolution. OpenAI at 6.0% and xAI at 1.1% trail further behind amid slower visible progress on flagship models. With potential new releases or benchmark drops before the cutoff, any surprise capability jump could narrow Anthropic’s lead, though current capital-weighted sentiment reflects its established edge in safety-focused performance.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,008,712Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 71.1% implied probability stems from the Claude family’s recent gains on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, where independent evaluations have shown clear leads over rivals. Traders view these results, backed by consistent third-party testing, as the strongest signal of current large language model superiority heading into late June. Google sits at 22.0% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet lags in several capability metrics that matter most to market resolution. OpenAI at 6.0% and xAI at 1.1% trail further behind amid slower visible progress on flagship models. With potential new releases or benchmark drops before the cutoff, any surprise capability jump could narrow Anthropic’s lead, though current capital-weighted sentiment reflects its established edge in safety-focused performance.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$6,008,712Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s dominant 71.1% implied probability stems from the Claude family’s recent gains on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, where independent evaluations have shown clear leads over rivals. Traders view these results, backed by consistent third-party testing, as the strongest signal of current large language model superiority heading into late June. Google sits at 22.0% on the strength of Gemini updates and enterprise integrations, yet lags in several capability metrics that matter most to market resolution. OpenAI at 6.0% and xAI at 1.1% trail further behind amid slower visible progress on flagship models. With potential new releases or benchmark drops before the cutoff, any surprise capability jump could narrow Anthropic’s lead, though current capital-weighted sentiment reflects its established edge in safety-focused performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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