Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude releases that delivered measurable gains on standard capability benchmarks compared with prior versions. Google follows at 9.5% amid steady Gemini updates, while OpenAI sits at just 0.8% despite ongoing iteration on its large language models. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, as well as potential regulatory or competitive announcements that could shift developer adoption and third-party evaluations. Historical patterns show AI model leadership can change quickly with new releases, underscoring the uncertainty even in a market with strong current positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of May?
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Anthropic 85%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.0%
ByteDance <1%
$8,944,734 Обс.
$8,944,734 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
10%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.0%
ByteDance <1%
$8,944,734 Обс.
$8,944,734 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$666,631 Обс.
85%
$607,839 Обс.
10%
OpenAI
$764,984 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$555,434 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$526,017 Обс.
<1%
Meta
$582,405 Обс.
<1%
xAI
$667,375 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$558,159 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,923 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$406,756 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,422,640 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$416,851 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude releases that delivered measurable gains on standard capability benchmarks compared with prior versions. Google follows at 9.5% amid steady Gemini updates, while OpenAI sits at just 0.8% despite ongoing iteration on its large language models. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, as well as potential regulatory or competitive announcements that could shift developer adoption and third-party evaluations. Historical patterns show AI model leadership can change quickly with new releases, underscoring the uncertainty even in a market with strong current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,944,734Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude releases that delivered measurable gains on standard capability benchmarks compared with prior versions. Google follows at 9.5% amid steady Gemini updates, while OpenAI sits at just 0.8% despite ongoing iteration on its large language models. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, as well as potential regulatory or competitive announcements that could shift developer adoption and third-party evaluations. Historical patterns show AI model leadership can change quickly with new releases, underscoring the uncertainty even in a market with strong current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Обсяг
$8,944,734Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic an 84.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, reflecting its recent Claude releases that delivered measurable gains on standard capability benchmarks compared with prior versions. Google follows at 9.5% amid steady Gemini updates, while OpenAI sits at just 0.8% despite ongoing iteration on its large language models. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or capability demonstrations before the resolution date, as well as potential regulatory or competitive announcements that could shift developer adoption and third-party evaluations. Historical patterns show AI model leadership can change quickly with new releases, underscoring the uncertainty even in a market with strong current positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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