With no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin per the National Hurricane Center's latest assessment on May 13, and daily Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.5% implied probability for a hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—striking the continental U.S. by May 31. This reflects the climatological rarity of May U.S. landfalls, with only a handful since 1851 amid typically high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air suppressing development; the first named storm usually emerges around June 20. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and CSU project below-normal activity overall, influenced by transitioning La Niña conditions. A surprise shift could come from rapid intensification of an untracked disturbance, but current model consensus shows low odds, with key updates from NHC briefings through month's end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$22,303 Обс.
$22,303 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$22,303 Обс.
$22,303 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.With no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin per the National Hurricane Center's latest assessment on May 13, and daily Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.5% implied probability for a hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—striking the continental U.S. by May 31. This reflects the climatological rarity of May U.S. landfalls, with only a handful since 1851 amid typically high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air suppressing development; the first named storm usually emerges around June 20. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and CSU project below-normal activity overall, influenced by transitioning La Niña conditions. A surprise shift could come from rapid intensification of an untracked disturbance, but current model consensus shows low odds, with key updates from NHC briefings through month's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,303Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.With no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin per the National Hurricane Center's latest assessment on May 13, and daily Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.5% implied probability for a hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—striking the continental U.S. by May 31. This reflects the climatological rarity of May U.S. landfalls, with only a handful since 1851 amid typically high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air suppressing development; the first named storm usually emerges around June 20. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and CSU project below-normal activity overall, influenced by transitioning La Niña conditions. A surprise shift could come from rapid intensification of an untracked disturbance, but current model consensus shows low odds, with key updates from NHC briefings through month's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Обсяг
$22,303Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin per the National Hurricane Center's latest assessment on May 13, and daily Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.5% implied probability for a hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—striking the continental U.S. by May 31. This reflects the climatological rarity of May U.S. landfalls, with only a handful since 1851 amid typically high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air suppressing development; the first named storm usually emerges around June 20. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and CSU project below-normal activity overall, influenced by transitioning La Niña conditions. A surprise shift could come from rapid intensification of an untracked disturbance, but current model consensus shows low odds, with key updates from NHC briefings through month's end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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