Record low 2026 winter maximum extent of 13.76–14.29 million square kilometers has left thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14 percent below the 1991–2020 median—and early August values near 6.2 million square kilometers. This baseline, combined with ongoing above-average Arctic temperatures and marginal sea ice retreat, supports trader clustering around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Key variables include late-summer weather patterns that could accelerate or slow melt, regional ice thickness distributions, and model consensus on remaining volume loss before the annual minimum.