Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 43%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.9%
5m+ sq km 5.3%
$57,887 Обс.
$57,887 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
43%
4.0-4.2m sq km
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
5%
<4m sq km 43%
4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.9%
5m+ sq km 5.3%
$57,887 Обс.
$57,887 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$28,328 Обс.
43%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$5,292 Обс.
21%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,020 Обс.
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$2,187 Обс.
5%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$3,909 Обс.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,178 Обс.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,974 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$57,887Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$57,887Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low spring Arctic sea ice extent, including a near-record winter maximum and June 2026 values ranking among the lowest on record at around 10.7–11.2 million sq km, has positioned the market-implied odds heavily toward a September minimum below 4 million sq km. Persistent above-average temperatures in key regions like the Barents and Labrador Seas, combined with the long-term 12% per decade decline trend, have accelerated early melt and reduced the ice volume available for summer survival. While atmospheric patterns over the coming months remain the dominant uncertainty—potentially favoring rapid ice loss or temporary retention—current observational data from NSIDC and JAXA reinforce trader consensus around historically low outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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