The National Hurricane Center's first 2026 daily tropical outlook, issued May 15, shows no disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reflecting suppressed conditions from an emerging El Niño and dry air across the Atlantic basin. With only two weeks remaining before the May 31 resolution date and the official season starting June 1, climatological data indicate minimal risk, as May U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred just four times in the satellite era. Seasonal models from Colorado State University project below-average activity overall, reinforcing trader consensus on a quiet pre-season window. An isolated, rapidly intensifying system forming and tracking onshore could still shift odds, though current guidance shows low probability of such development before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$26,085 Обс.
$26,085 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$26,085 Обс.
$26,085 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The National Hurricane Center's first 2026 daily tropical outlook, issued May 15, shows no disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reflecting suppressed conditions from an emerging El Niño and dry air across the Atlantic basin. With only two weeks remaining before the May 31 resolution date and the official season starting June 1, climatological data indicate minimal risk, as May U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred just four times in the satellite era. Seasonal models from Colorado State University project below-average activity overall, reinforcing trader consensus on a quiet pre-season window. An isolated, rapidly intensifying system forming and tracking onshore could still shift odds, though current guidance shows low probability of such development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,085Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The National Hurricane Center's first 2026 daily tropical outlook, issued May 15, shows no disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reflecting suppressed conditions from an emerging El Niño and dry air across the Atlantic basin. With only two weeks remaining before the May 31 resolution date and the official season starting June 1, climatological data indicate minimal risk, as May U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred just four times in the satellite era. Seasonal models from Colorado State University project below-average activity overall, reinforcing trader consensus on a quiet pre-season window. An isolated, rapidly intensifying system forming and tracking onshore could still shift odds, though current guidance shows low probability of such development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Обсяг
$26,085Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's first 2026 daily tropical outlook, issued May 15, shows no disturbances with development potential over the next seven days, reflecting suppressed conditions from an emerging El Niño and dry air across the Atlantic basin. With only two weeks remaining before the May 31 resolution date and the official season starting June 1, climatological data indicate minimal risk, as May U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred just four times in the satellite era. Seasonal models from Colorado State University project below-average activity overall, reinforcing trader consensus on a quiet pre-season window. An isolated, rapidly intensifying system forming and tracking onshore could still shift odds, though current guidance shows low probability of such development before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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