The Department of Justice’s explicit statement after releasing more than 3.5 million Epstein-related documents in January 2026—that the materials provide no basis for additional U.S. criminal charges—has solidified trader expectations against further incarcerations. Months later, no indictments or arrests traceable to those disclosures have occurred in the United States, reflecting evidentiary gaps, expired statutes of limitations, and prior non-prosecution agreements. Limited international actions, including bail releases for figures such as Peter Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, have not produced jail time attributable to the new files. A May 2026 court unsealing of an Epstein note generated brief attention but yielded no prosecutorial movement. These barriers, absent any late-breaking U.S. developments before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, underpin the 89 percent implied probability that no qualifying imprisonment will result.