Elevated US Treasury yields, with the 10-year note near 5.25% at multi-decade highs, and market-implied expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening underpin the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 102, its strongest levels since April 2025. Hawkish Fed communications following the September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, combined with resilient economic growth, sticky core inflation around 3%, and geopolitical pressures from higher oil prices, have reinforced the dollar's interest-rate advantage over major peers. The recent soft September nonfarm payrolls print tempered near-term hike odds but did little to dent the broader higher-for-longer narrative. Traders will monitor the October 7 FOMC minutes and ISM Services PMI for signals on the policy path, alongside any shifts in inflation or labor data that could influence short-term volatility around current levels.
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