Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of key regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Despite Tesla's supervised robotaxi service launching in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 with safety drivers, state records show zero autonomous test miles logged under its current TCP limo permit—not a full autonomous vehicle (AV) permit required for driverless operations. Recent DMV rules adopted April 29 enabling police ticketing of driverless vehicles (effective July 1) underscore heightened scrutiny, while Tesla prioritizes expansions in permissive states like Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston now unsupervised). With six weeks remaining, no permit filings or capability demonstrations signal imminent driverless rollout, though a surprise approval or FSD v14 milestone could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
$105,492 Обс.
$105,492 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,492 Обс.
$105,492 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of key regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Despite Tesla's supervised robotaxi service launching in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 with safety drivers, state records show zero autonomous test miles logged under its current TCP limo permit—not a full autonomous vehicle (AV) permit required for driverless operations. Recent DMV rules adopted April 29 enabling police ticketing of driverless vehicles (effective July 1) underscore heightened scrutiny, while Tesla prioritizes expansions in permissive states like Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston now unsupervised). With six weeks remaining, no permit filings or capability demonstrations signal imminent driverless rollout, though a surprise approval or FSD v14 milestone could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$105,492Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of key regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Despite Tesla's supervised robotaxi service launching in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 with safety drivers, state records show zero autonomous test miles logged under its current TCP limo permit—not a full autonomous vehicle (AV) permit required for driverless operations. Recent DMV rules adopted April 29 enabling police ticketing of driverless vehicles (effective July 1) underscore heightened scrutiny, while Tesla prioritizes expansions in permissive states like Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston now unsupervised). With six weeks remaining, no permit filings or capability demonstrations signal imminent driverless rollout, though a surprise approval or FSD v14 milestone could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$105,492Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability for "No" on Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven primarily by the absence of key regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Despite Tesla's supervised robotaxi service launching in the San Francisco Bay Area on April 18 with safety drivers, state records show zero autonomous test miles logged under its current TCP limo permit—not a full autonomous vehicle (AV) permit required for driverless operations. Recent DMV rules adopted April 29 enabling police ticketing of driverless vehicles (effective July 1) underscore heightened scrutiny, while Tesla prioritizes expansions in permissive states like Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston now unsupervised). With six weeks remaining, no permit filings or capability demonstrations signal imminent driverless rollout, though a surprise approval or FSD v14 milestone could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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