Gold prices have fluctuated near $4,050–$4,100 in early November 2026 after rebounding from late-October lows around $3,870, driven primarily by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the October nonfarm payrolls release. Markets currently price roughly 70% odds of a December rate hike, with stronger-than-expected jobs data likely to reinforce that view, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields while raising gold’s opportunity cost. Recent U.S. midterm election outcomes have tempered fiscal expansion bets, contributing to softer yields and a brief rally, while central bank purchases of 321 tonnes in Q3 and ETF inflows of $2.7 billion in October provide underlying support. The October CPI release on November 10 remains the next key inflation gauge.