Trader consensus positions Meta as the frontrunner for #2 AI lab by end of October at 40.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 23.5%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13%, driven by Meta's open-source large language model releases, extensive user base, and integration across platforms. These odds reflect competitive dynamics in model capabilities, benchmark performance, and developer ecosystem growth amid rapid releases from multiple labs. Key differentiators include scaling infrastructure, safety evaluations, and partnership momentum, with the tight race underscoring how new model updates or adoption shifts could alter standings before the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMeta 41%
Google 24%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
41%
24%
OpenAI
17%
Anthropic
13%
Alibaba
11%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
5%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
2%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta 41%
Google 24%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$467 KL.
41%
$2,790 KL.
24%
OpenAI
$522 KL.
17%
Anthropic
$393 KL.
13%
Alibaba
$272 KL.
11%
Z.ai
$249 KL.
3%
Moonshot
$119 KL.
3%
SpaceXAI
$287 KL.
5%
DeepSeek
$107 KL.
2%
ByteDance
$259 KL.
2%
Meituan
$144 KL.
2%
Nvidia
$191 KL.
1%
StepFun
$250 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$249 KL.
1%
Thinky
$319 KL.
1%
Mistral
$278 KL.
1%
Tencent
$296 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$301 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$278 KL.
1%
Baidu
$219 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$258 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus positions Meta as the frontrunner for #2 AI lab by end of October at 40.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 23.5%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13%, driven by Meta's open-source large language model releases, extensive user base, and integration across platforms. These odds reflect competitive dynamics in model capabilities, benchmark performance, and developer ecosystem growth amid rapid releases from multiple labs. Key differentiators include scaling infrastructure, safety evaluations, and partnership momentum, with the tight race underscoring how new model updates or adoption shifts could alter standings before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,253Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus positions Meta as the frontrunner for #2 AI lab by end of October at 40.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 23.5%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13%, driven by Meta's open-source large language model releases, extensive user base, and integration across platforms. These odds reflect competitive dynamics in model capabilities, benchmark performance, and developer ecosystem growth amid rapid releases from multiple labs. Key differentiators include scaling infrastructure, safety evaluations, and partnership momentum, with the tight race underscoring how new model updates or adoption shifts could alter standings before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$8,253Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions Meta as the frontrunner for #2 AI lab by end of October at 40.5% implied probability, ahead of Google at 23.5%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13%, driven by Meta's open-source large language model releases, extensive user base, and integration across platforms. These odds reflect competitive dynamics in model capabilities, benchmark performance, and developer ecosystem growth amid rapid releases from multiple labs. Key differentiators include scaling infrastructure, safety evaluations, and partnership momentum, with the tight race underscoring how new model updates or adoption shifts could alter standings before the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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