No EU member state has launched Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum as of mid-2026, anchoring trader consensus around a 96% probability against any exit before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in countries including France, the Netherlands, and Hungary continue to push reforms or renegotiations rather than full departure, while majorities remain absent and net fiscal beneficiaries such as Poland face clear economic barriers. The remaining timeline offers insufficient runway for national votes, negotiations, and legal steps. Shifts remain possible through surprise electoral gains by hard Eurosceptics, acute treaty conflicts, or simultaneous economic shocks that realign cost-benefit calculations across multiple states.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
$159,613 KL.
$159,613 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$159,613 KL.
$159,613 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has launched Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum as of mid-2026, anchoring trader consensus around a 96% probability against any exit before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in countries including France, the Netherlands, and Hungary continue to push reforms or renegotiations rather than full departure, while majorities remain absent and net fiscal beneficiaries such as Poland face clear economic barriers. The remaining timeline offers insufficient runway for national votes, negotiations, and legal steps. Shifts remain possible through surprise electoral gains by hard Eurosceptics, acute treaty conflicts, or simultaneous economic shocks that realign cost-benefit calculations across multiple states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$159,613Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has launched Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum as of mid-2026, anchoring trader consensus around a 96% probability against any exit before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in countries including France, the Netherlands, and Hungary continue to push reforms or renegotiations rather than full departure, while majorities remain absent and net fiscal beneficiaries such as Poland face clear economic barriers. The remaining timeline offers insufficient runway for national votes, negotiations, and legal steps. Shifts remain possible through surprise electoral gains by hard Eurosceptics, acute treaty conflicts, or simultaneous economic shocks that realign cost-benefit calculations across multiple states.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$159,613Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No EU member state has launched Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum as of mid-2026, anchoring trader consensus around a 96% probability against any exit before 2027. Eurosceptic parties in countries including France, the Netherlands, and Hungary continue to push reforms or renegotiations rather than full departure, while majorities remain absent and net fiscal beneficiaries such as Poland face clear economic barriers. The remaining timeline offers insufficient runway for national votes, negotiations, and legal steps. Shifts remain possible through surprise electoral gains by hard Eurosceptics, acute treaty conflicts, or simultaneous economic shocks that realign cost-benefit calculations across multiple states.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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