Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,403,046 KL.
$1,403,046 KL.
May 2, 2026
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,403,046 KL.
$1,403,046 KL.
May 2, 2026
<40
$199,503 KL.
No
40-64
$235,105 KL.
Yes
65-89
$340,735 KL.
No
90-114
$276,547 KL.
No
115-139
$135,434 KL.
No
140-164
$62,547 KL.
No
165-189
$45,512 KL.
No
190-214
$46,496 KL.
No
215-239
$32,908 KL.
No
240+
$28,258 KL.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,403,046Ngày kết thúc
May 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,403,046Ngày kết thúc
May 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs the 40-64 post range at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, 2026, driven by verified trackers confirming exactly 50 posts as the market hits 100% progress early May 2 EST. This positioning stems from Musk's steady cadence—averaging 16-17 posts daily on viral topics like Starlink's Papua New Guinea rollout, Grok Voice benchmarks, Tesla trends, and political commentary—without the explosive bursts seen in prior high-volume weeks. Skin-in-the-game bettors see no realistic path to 65+ given historical patterns and remaining hours before likely midday ET close. An upset would require disputed post counts (e.g., excluding quotes/reposts) or an improbable late surge, defying recent moderation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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