Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật200-219 45.6%
180-199 27.5%
220-239 22.1%
240-259 4.0%
$9,868,333 KL.
$9,868,333 KL.
May 19, 2026
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
27%
200-219
46%
220-239
22%
240-259
4%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 45.6%
180-199 27.5%
220-239 22.1%
240-259 4.0%
$9,868,333 KL.
$9,868,333 KL.
May 19, 2026
140-159
$720,063 KL.
<1%
160-179
$515,285 KL.
1%
180-199
$399,341 KL.
27%
200-219
$380,094 KL.
46%
220-239
$421,856 KL.
22%
240-259
$327,051 KL.
4%
260-279
$307,369 KL.
1%
280-299
$282,566 KL.
<1%
300-319
$331,430 KL.
<1%
320-339
$406,255 KL.
<1%
340-359
$431,349 KL.
<1%
360-379
$416,804 KL.
<1%
380-399
$400,329 KL.
<1%
400-419
$551,299 KL.
<1%
420-439
$157,847 KL.
<1%
440-459
$82,158 KL.
<1%
460-479
$67,054 KL.
<1%
480-499
$29,200 KL.
<1%
500+
$241,779 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,868,333Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$9,868,333Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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