Traders are pricing Elon Musk’s tweet volume for May 19-26 around the 180-220 range, where the two leading bins sit neck-and-neck at 16.5% and 15.5% implied probability. This tight clustering reflects his well-documented baseline of 25–30 posts per day on X, driven by real-time commentary on Tesla production updates, SpaceX milestones, and broader tech or political developments. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether any mid-week catalysts—such as earnings previews, regulatory news, or viral threads—push activity higher, while quieter stretches without major announcements favor the lower bins. The spread across multiple outcomes underscores the inherent variability of Musk’s posting rhythm, with traders weighing historical weekly averages against the potential for sudden spikes tied to unfolding events.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật180-199 17%
200-219 16%
160-179 13%
220-239 13%
$227,752 KL.
$227,752 KL.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
3%
120-139
7%
140-159
11%
160-179
13%
180-199
17%
200-219
16%
220-239
13%
240-259
9%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 17%
200-219 16%
160-179 13%
220-239 13%
$227,752 KL.
$227,752 KL.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
3%
120-139
7%
140-159
11%
160-179
13%
180-199
17%
200-219
16%
220-239
13%
240-259
9%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Nguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskFor the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Nguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskTraders are pricing Elon Musk’s tweet volume for May 19-26 around the 180-220 range, where the two leading bins sit neck-and-neck at 16.5% and 15.5% implied probability. This tight clustering reflects his well-documented baseline of 25–30 posts per day on X, driven by real-time commentary on Tesla production updates, SpaceX milestones, and broader tech or political developments. Competitive dynamics hinge on whether any mid-week catalysts—such as earnings previews, regulatory news, or viral threads—push activity higher, while quieter stretches without major announcements favor the lower bins. The spread across multiple outcomes underscores the inherent variability of Musk’s posting rhythm, with traders weighing historical weekly averages against the potential for sudden spikes tied to unfolding events.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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