The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI and Sam Altman breached the original nonprofit charter by converting the AI lab into a for-profit entity underpins the market’s 91.5% implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. Strong statute-of-limitations arguments, evidence of Musk’s early knowledge of for-profit plans, and testimony questioning both sides’ credibility have reinforced trader skepticism that any jury verdict or judicial remedy will reach that scale. If the nine-person jury finds liability next week, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers will still control remedies in follow-on hearings, with appeals likely to further delay or reduce outcomes. Traders view the narrow legal thresholds and historical difficulty of enforcing charitable-trust claims against successful AI developers as durable barriers to a massive payout.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$79,572 KL.
$79,572 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$79,572 KL.
$79,572 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI and Sam Altman breached the original nonprofit charter by converting the AI lab into a for-profit entity underpins the market’s 91.5% implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. Strong statute-of-limitations arguments, evidence of Musk’s early knowledge of for-profit plans, and testimony questioning both sides’ credibility have reinforced trader skepticism that any jury verdict or judicial remedy will reach that scale. If the nine-person jury finds liability next week, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers will still control remedies in follow-on hearings, with appeals likely to further delay or reduce outcomes. Traders view the narrow legal thresholds and historical difficulty of enforcing charitable-trust claims against successful AI developers as durable barriers to a massive payout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$79,572Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI and Sam Altman breached the original nonprofit charter by converting the AI lab into a for-profit entity underpins the market’s 91.5% implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. Strong statute-of-limitations arguments, evidence of Musk’s early knowledge of for-profit plans, and testimony questioning both sides’ credibility have reinforced trader skepticism that any jury verdict or judicial remedy will reach that scale. If the nine-person jury finds liability next week, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers will still control remedies in follow-on hearings, with appeals likely to further delay or reduce outcomes. Traders view the narrow legal thresholds and historical difficulty of enforcing charitable-trust claims against successful AI developers as durable barriers to a massive payout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$79,572Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland over Elon Musk’s claims that OpenAI and Sam Altman breached the original nonprofit charter by converting the AI lab into a for-profit entity underpins the market’s 91.5% implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. Strong statute-of-limitations arguments, evidence of Musk’s early knowledge of for-profit plans, and testimony questioning both sides’ credibility have reinforced trader skepticism that any jury verdict or judicial remedy will reach that scale. If the nine-person jury finds liability next week, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers will still control remedies in follow-on hearings, with appeals likely to further delay or reduce outcomes. Traders view the narrow legal thresholds and historical difficulty of enforcing charitable-trust claims against successful AI developers as durable barriers to a massive payout.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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