Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with a resilient labor market showing a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 payroll gains. This data has solidified the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool odds near 99% for stability through July amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Realistic challenges include softer May jobs data or cooling June CPI ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving modest rate cut bets.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 93%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.9%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.1%
$5,364,336 KL.
$5,364,336 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
4%
Không thay đổi
93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
3%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 93%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 2.9%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 1.1%
$5,364,336 KL.
$5,364,336 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$512,518 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$398,431 KL.
4%
Không thay đổi
$622,585 KL.
93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,364,037 KL.
3%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$466,766 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with a resilient labor market showing a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 payroll gains. This data has solidified the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool odds near 99% for stability through July amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Realistic challenges include softer May jobs data or cooling June CPI ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving modest rate cut bets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,364,336Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with a resilient labor market showing a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 payroll gains. This data has solidified the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool odds near 99% for stability through July amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Realistic challenges include softer May jobs data or cooling June CPI ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving modest rate cut bets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$5,364,336Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 92.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus driven by hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—coupled with a resilient labor market showing a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest 115,000 payroll gains. This data has solidified the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool odds near 99% for stability through July amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Realistic challenges include softer May jobs data or cooling June CPI ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving modest rate cut bets.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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