Recent April 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.6 percent monthly rise and 3.8 percent year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range during the July 28–29 meeting. This positions the no-change outcome at 93.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and resilient labor market conditions that have kept monetary policy on hold since the April decision. Markets price in only modest odds for a 25 basis point adjustment either way, consistent with forward-looking projections that see limited near-term easing. June inflation releases and employment figures remain key upcoming catalysts that could shift the rate path if disinflation resumes or growth weakens materially.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.5%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 2.1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$5,673,294 KL.
$5,673,294 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Không thay đổi
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.5%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 2.1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$5,673,294 KL.
$5,673,294 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$562,973 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$452,089 KL.
2%
Không thay đổi
$671,298 KL.
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,427,787 KL.
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$560,937 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.6 percent monthly rise and 3.8 percent year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range during the July 28–29 meeting. This positions the no-change outcome at 93.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and resilient labor market conditions that have kept monetary policy on hold since the April decision. Markets price in only modest odds for a 25 basis point adjustment either way, consistent with forward-looking projections that see limited near-term easing. June inflation releases and employment figures remain key upcoming catalysts that could shift the rate path if disinflation resumes or growth weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,673,294Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.6 percent monthly rise and 3.8 percent year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range during the July 28–29 meeting. This positions the no-change outcome at 93.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and resilient labor market conditions that have kept monetary policy on hold since the April decision. Markets price in only modest odds for a 25 basis point adjustment either way, consistent with forward-looking projections that see limited near-term easing. June inflation releases and employment figures remain key upcoming catalysts that could shift the rate path if disinflation resumes or growth weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$5,673,294Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.6 percent monthly rise and 3.8 percent year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50–3.75 percent target range during the July 28–29 meeting. This positions the no-change outcome at 93.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and resilient labor market conditions that have kept monetary policy on hold since the April decision. Markets price in only modest odds for a 25 basis point adjustment either way, consistent with forward-looking projections that see limited near-term easing. June inflation releases and employment figures remain key upcoming catalysts that could shift the rate path if disinflation resumes or growth weakens materially.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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