Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna holds a narrow edge over Democrat Leela Gray in Florida’s 13th congressional district following the November 3 general election, with unofficial tallies showing Luna at 49.5% to Gray’s 48.7% for a margin of roughly 0.8 points. The race tightened despite redistricting that strengthened the district’s Republican lean to approximately R+6 by shifting boundaries northward into more favorable areas of Pasco County and away from Democratic strongholds in southern Pinellas. Late-cycle polling averaged near even or a slight Luna lead within the margin of error, while national midterm dynamics favored Democrats in the House overall. These factors align with trader consensus favoring a Republican victory margin under three points as the most probable outcome, with vote certification and any remaining absentee or provisional ballots serving as the key remaining variables.