Elon Musk’s August 4 statement that Grok 4.6 is “likely coming out next week” serves as the main catalyst behind current trader sentiment, building directly on the July 16–20 launch of Grok 4.5. xAI has compressed development cycles by reorganizing engineering teams to target two-to-three-week update intervals, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as an incremental but rapid improvement in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for coding and agentic tasks. This follows Musk’s earlier timeline signals for a mid-August rollout and precedes the larger Grok 4.7 expected weeks later. Traders are watching for any same-day API or platform availability on August 7, as well as immediate benchmark comparisons against models such as Claude Opus 4.8, given xAI’s history of both aggressive claims and occasional timeline slippage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
$36,354 KL.
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
10%
August 14
86%
$36,354 KL.
August 7
$21,301 KL.
10%
August 14
$15,053 KL.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s August 4 statement that Grok 4.6 is “likely coming out next week” serves as the main catalyst behind current trader sentiment, building directly on the July 16–20 launch of Grok 4.5. xAI has compressed development cycles by reorganizing engineering teams to target two-to-three-week update intervals, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as an incremental but rapid improvement in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for coding and agentic tasks. This follows Musk’s earlier timeline signals for a mid-August rollout and precedes the larger Grok 4.7 expected weeks later. Traders are watching for any same-day API or platform availability on August 7, as well as immediate benchmark comparisons against models such as Claude Opus 4.8, given xAI’s history of both aggressive claims and occasional timeline slippage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$36,354Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s August 4 statement that Grok 4.6 is “likely coming out next week” serves as the main catalyst behind current trader sentiment, building directly on the July 16–20 launch of Grok 4.5. xAI has compressed development cycles by reorganizing engineering teams to target two-to-three-week update intervals, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as an incremental but rapid improvement in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for coding and agentic tasks. This follows Musk’s earlier timeline signals for a mid-August rollout and precedes the larger Grok 4.7 expected weeks later. Traders are watching for any same-day API or platform availability on August 7, as well as immediate benchmark comparisons against models such as Claude Opus 4.8, given xAI’s history of both aggressive claims and occasional timeline slippage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$36,354Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s August 4 statement that Grok 4.6 is “likely coming out next week” serves as the main catalyst behind current trader sentiment, building directly on the July 16–20 launch of Grok 4.5. xAI has compressed development cycles by reorganizing engineering teams to target two-to-three-week update intervals, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as an incremental but rapid improvement in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for coding and agentic tasks. This follows Musk’s earlier timeline signals for a mid-August rollout and precedes the larger Grok 4.7 expected weeks later. Traders are watching for any same-day API or platform availability on August 7, as well as immediate benchmark comparisons against models such as Claude Opus 4.8, given xAI’s history of both aggressive claims and occasional timeline slippage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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