Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, now at 79.5% implied probability. The hung jury on May 15, following nine-to-three deadlock, leaves the 74-year-old producer facing only his upheld 2025 sexual-assault conviction and an appealed 16-year California sentence. Ongoing appeals, potential plea negotiations, and the fact he has already served nearly six years at Rikers reinforce the market’s view that further significant incarceration is unlikely. Upcoming sentencing hearings and any decision on retrial remain key swing factors in this high-stakes legal saga.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Thời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Không bị tù 79.6%
Dưới 5 năm 5.4%
20-30 năm 4.2%
10-20 năm 2.5%
$991,132 KL.
$991,132 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
80%
Dưới 5 năm
5%
5-10 years
2%
10-20 năm
2%
20-30 năm
4%
Hơn 30 năm
1%
Không bị tù 79.6%
Dưới 5 năm 5.4%
20-30 năm 4.2%
10-20 năm 2.5%
$991,132 KL.
$991,132 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
$348,967 KL.
80%
Dưới 5 năm
$131,330 KL.
5%
5-10 years
$79,813 KL.
2%
10-20 năm
$158,943 KL.
2%
20-30 năm
$199,610 KL.
4%
Hơn 30 năm
$72,469 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, now at 79.5% implied probability. The hung jury on May 15, following nine-to-three deadlock, leaves the 74-year-old producer facing only his upheld 2025 sexual-assault conviction and an appealed 16-year California sentence. Ongoing appeals, potential plea negotiations, and the fact he has already served nearly six years at Rikers reinforce the market’s view that further significant incarceration is unlikely. Upcoming sentencing hearings and any decision on retrial remain key swing factors in this high-stakes legal saga.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$991,132Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, now at 79.5% implied probability. The hung jury on May 15, following nine-to-three deadlock, leaves the 74-year-old producer facing only his upheld 2025 sexual-assault conviction and an appealed 16-year California sentence. Ongoing appeals, potential plea negotiations, and the fact he has already served nearly six years at Rikers reinforce the market’s view that further significant incarceration is unlikely. Upcoming sentencing hearings and any decision on retrial remain key swing factors in this high-stakes legal saga.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$991,132Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader consensus around no additional prison time, now at 79.5% implied probability. The hung jury on May 15, following nine-to-three deadlock, leaves the 74-year-old producer facing only his upheld 2025 sexual-assault conviction and an appealed 16-year California sentence. Ongoing appeals, potential plea negotiations, and the fact he has already served nearly six years at Rikers reinforce the market’s view that further significant incarceration is unlikely. Upcoming sentencing hearings and any decision on retrial remain key swing factors in this high-stakes legal saga.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp