Google's rapid Gemini iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 variants plus ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4, forms the main catalyst behind trader focus on whether any Gemini model can reach higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark tests frontier multi-step reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, where current Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants sit near 45-47% on text-only or no-tools evaluations—trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models at 59-65%. HLE scores across the industry have climbed sharply since the benchmark’s early 2025 launch but retain substantial headroom. Key swing factors include Google’s next model releases, improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction, and any competitive response from other labs before December 31, 2026 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$92,140 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
90%
55%+
34%
60%+
22%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$92,140 KL.
50%+
$30,912 KL.
90%
55%+
$35,922 KL.
34%
60%+
$15,691 KL.
22%
65%+
$5,256 KL.
12%
70%+
$4,358 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's rapid Gemini iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 variants plus ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4, forms the main catalyst behind trader focus on whether any Gemini model can reach higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark tests frontier multi-step reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, where current Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants sit near 45-47% on text-only or no-tools evaluations—trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models at 59-65%. HLE scores across the industry have climbed sharply since the benchmark’s early 2025 launch but retain substantial headroom. Key swing factors include Google’s next model releases, improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction, and any competitive response from other labs before December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$92,140Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's rapid Gemini iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 variants plus ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4, forms the main catalyst behind trader focus on whether any Gemini model can reach higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark tests frontier multi-step reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, where current Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants sit near 45-47% on text-only or no-tools evaluations—trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models at 59-65%. HLE scores across the industry have climbed sharply since the benchmark’s early 2025 launch but retain substantial headroom. Key swing factors include Google’s next model releases, improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction, and any competitive response from other labs before December 31, 2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$92,140Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Google's rapid Gemini iteration cadence, including recent 3.7 Flash and 3.8 variants plus ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4, forms the main catalyst behind trader focus on whether any Gemini model can reach higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark tests frontier multi-step reasoning across mathematics, physics, biology, and humanities, where current Gemini 3.1 Pro and Flash variants sit near 45-47% on text-only or no-tools evaluations—trailing Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models at 59-65%. HLE scores across the industry have climbed sharply since the benchmark’s early 2025 launch but retain substantial headroom. Key swing factors include Google’s next model releases, improvements in agentic reasoning and error reduction, and any competitive response from other labs before December 31, 2026 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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