**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$119,351 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
81%
50%+
53%
55%+
31%
60%+
19%
65%+
4%
$119,351 KL.
45%+
$44,627 KL.
81%
50%+
$24,876 KL.
53%
55%+
$29,262 KL.
31%
60%+
$17,653 KL.
19%
65%+
$2,934 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$119,351Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$119,351Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail significantly on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a demanding 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing frontier knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, leading Claude variants from Anthropic top public leaderboards at 64–65%, while the strongest reported Grok versions (such as 4.6) sit near 42.9%. xAI has driven incremental gains through iterative releases like Grok 4.3–4.6 and earlier tool-augmented or multi-agent configurations that reached the mid-40s to low-50s in select evaluations, but closed-book leaderboard results lag. With only three-plus months left in 2026, trader sentiment centers on whether xAI’s rapid iteration pace can deliver the substantial capability jumps needed to hit higher thresholds before year-end, amid competition from continued Anthropic and OpenAI advances.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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