OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries, including GPT-5.6 Sol variants, currently top out around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models that reach 54.9–55.5%. Recent progress stems from expanded reasoning chains, agentic scaffolding, and GPT-5 series iterations that better synthesize graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. The 2,500-question benchmark, designed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation, continues to expose gaps in multi-step expert reasoning despite rapid frontier gains overall. Traders price high odds for OpenAI clearing 50% by year-end but assign lower probability to 55%+ thresholds, reflecting the need for additional model releases or capability jumps before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$39,016 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
73%
55%+
49%
60%+
26%
65%+
10%
70%+
6%
$39,016 KL.
50%+
$6,725 KL.
73%
55%+
$15,440 KL.
49%
60%+
$11,861 KL.
26%
65%+
$2,918 KL.
10%
70%+
$2,072 KL.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries, including GPT-5.6 Sol variants, currently top out around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models that reach 54.9–55.5%. Recent progress stems from expanded reasoning chains, agentic scaffolding, and GPT-5 series iterations that better synthesize graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. The 2,500-question benchmark, designed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation, continues to expose gaps in multi-step expert reasoning despite rapid frontier gains overall. Traders price high odds for OpenAI clearing 50% by year-end but assign lower probability to 55%+ thresholds, reflecting the need for additional model releases or capability jumps before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$39,016Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries, including GPT-5.6 Sol variants, currently top out around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models that reach 54.9–55.5%. Recent progress stems from expanded reasoning chains, agentic scaffolding, and GPT-5 series iterations that better synthesize graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. The 2,500-question benchmark, designed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation, continues to expose gaps in multi-step expert reasoning despite rapid frontier gains overall. Traders price high odds for OpenAI clearing 50% by year-end but assign lower probability to 55%+ thresholds, reflecting the need for additional model releases or capability jumps before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$39,016Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries, including GPT-5.6 Sol variants, currently top out around 49.5% on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models that reach 54.9–55.5%. Recent progress stems from expanded reasoning chains, agentic scaffolding, and GPT-5 series iterations that better synthesize graduate-level questions across math, science, and humanities. The 2,500-question benchmark, designed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI to resist saturation, continues to expose gaps in multi-step expert reasoning despite rapid frontier gains overall. Traders price high odds for OpenAI clearing 50% by year-end but assign lower probability to 55%+ thresholds, reflecting the need for additional model releases or capability jumps before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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