Latest short-range model consensus from major centers indicates Ankara will experience clear skies and light winds under persistent high pressure on July 22, favoring strong daytime radiative heating and peak temperatures centered on 32–33 °C. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes, reflecting typical mid-July continental conditions where dry air and insolation push maxima near the climatological 30–32 °C average. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest upside risk to 34 °C if mixing strengthens and negligible downside below 31 °C absent unexpected cloud cover. No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, keeping trader focus on confirmation from the final model runs and official station readings.