Forecast models from agencies including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Met Office indicate a maximum near 11–12°C for Buenos Aires on August 11, driven by wintertime radiative cooling under clear skies, a high-pressure system suppressing northerly warm advection, and a recent cold front that has lowered daytime peaks below the long-term August average of roughly 15–16°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with resolution depending on official observations and any late-day warming under variable cloud cover. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 12°C outcome at 50.5% aligns with this guidance while acknowledging residual uncertainty in exact peak timing and microscale influences.