Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?
28°C 35%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C
35%
29°C
29%
30°C
8%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 35%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
$797 KL.
<1%
23°C
$381 KL.
<1%
24°C
$717 KL.
<1%
25°C
$86 KL.
1%
26°C
$112 KL.
5%
27°C
$342 KL.
20%
28°C
$134 KL.
35%
29°C
$709 KL.
29%
30°C
$298 KL.
8%
31°C
$470 KL.
5%
32°C or higher
$223 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,269Ngày kết thúc
Aug 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$4,269Ngày kết thúc
Aug 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts of showers and extensive cloud cover over Hong Kong on August 3 are the dominant driver behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28°C (34%) and 29°C (28.5%). Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation limit daytime heating while promoting evaporative cooling, capping maxima below the seasonal average high near 31–32°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August–October outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures provides broader context, yet local model consensus emphasizes these transient conditions that differentiate 27–29°C outcomes from rarer clearer-sky scenarios favoring 30°C or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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