Recent global seismicity shows moderate activity with several M7+ events in mid-August 2026, including a 7.4 in Colombia and larger shocks in Indonesia, generating aftershock sequences that can elevate M5.5+ counts above background rates. USGS monitoring indicates typical weekly M5–5.9 totals near 25–30 historically, though M5.5+ subsets vary with aftershock productivity, mainshock clustering along subduction zones, and detection thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects this variability, with close probabilities around 7–13 events driven by uncertainty over whether ongoing aftershocks will persist through August 23 or taper without new large triggers, alongside normal tectonic release at plate boundaries.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
>13 24%
9 15%
8 13%
7 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
8%
7
11%
8
13%
9
15%
10
11%
11
9%
12
7%
13
6%
>13
24%
>13 24%
9 15%
8 13%
7 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$2,830 KL.
8%
7
$144 KL.
11%
8
$216 KL.
13%
9
$424 KL.
15%
10
$189 KL.
11%
11
$134 KL.
9%
12
$145 KL.
7%
13
$169 KL.
6%
>13
$1,204 KL.
24%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity shows moderate activity with several M7+ events in mid-August 2026, including a 7.4 in Colombia and larger shocks in Indonesia, generating aftershock sequences that can elevate M5.5+ counts above background rates. USGS monitoring indicates typical weekly M5–5.9 totals near 25–30 historically, though M5.5+ subsets vary with aftershock productivity, mainshock clustering along subduction zones, and detection thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects this variability, with close probabilities around 7–13 events driven by uncertainty over whether ongoing aftershocks will persist through August 23 or taper without new large triggers, alongside normal tectonic release at plate boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,456Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity shows moderate activity with several M7+ events in mid-August 2026, including a 7.4 in Colombia and larger shocks in Indonesia, generating aftershock sequences that can elevate M5.5+ counts above background rates. USGS monitoring indicates typical weekly M5–5.9 totals near 25–30 historically, though M5.5+ subsets vary with aftershock productivity, mainshock clustering along subduction zones, and detection thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects this variability, with close probabilities around 7–13 events driven by uncertainty over whether ongoing aftershocks will persist through August 23 or taper without new large triggers, alongside normal tectonic release at plate boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$5,456Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismicity shows moderate activity with several M7+ events in mid-August 2026, including a 7.4 in Colombia and larger shocks in Indonesia, generating aftershock sequences that can elevate M5.5+ counts above background rates. USGS monitoring indicates typical weekly M5–5.9 totals near 25–30 historically, though M5.5+ subsets vary with aftershock productivity, mainshock clustering along subduction zones, and detection thresholds. Trader sentiment reflects this variability, with close probabilities around 7–13 events driven by uncertainty over whether ongoing aftershocks will persist through August 23 or taper without new large triggers, alongside normal tectonic release at plate boundaries.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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