SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
<5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 KL.
$450,036 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
50%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 50%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 KL.
$450,036 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 KL.
50%
5-6
$108,327 KL.
26%
7-8
$152,207 KL.
4%
9-10
$55,882 KL.
2%
11-12
$3,765 KL.
2%
13-14
$4,747 KL.
1%
15-16
$25,181 KL.
2%
>16
$9,304 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$450,036Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$450,036Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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