As sitting president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from Article 84 constitutional immunity shielding him from criminal prosecution or arrest while in office, except for insurrection or foreign aggression, leading courts to suspend multiple prior trials on election law and related charges. The ruling Democratic Party's majority in the National Assembly has advanced special counsel legislation to examine allegations of fabricated evidence from the previous administration, further reducing near-term enforcement risks. Trader consensus at 97% for no arrest by end-2026 reflects these institutional protections and procedural delays. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include successful impeachment proceedings, voluntary resignation, or unforeseen new charges outside immunity protections before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.