**Lee Jae-myung, elected president in South Korea’s June 2025 snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecutions except for insurrection or treason.** Multiple ongoing cases—covering election-law violations, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure in Seongnam, and related charges—were suspended upon his inauguration. His Democratic Party majority has advanced special-counsel legislation aimed at resolving or dismissing these matters, while courts have postponed further proceedings. No arrest warrants have been executed since he took office, and recent reporting through mid-2026 shows no new prosecutorial moves capable of overriding immunity before the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the structural protection of the presidency and the absence of qualifying offenses or legislative changes that would alter it.