Recent North Korean ballistic missile tests, including the October 3 launch into the East Sea following a September DMZ landmine incident that injured South Korean soldiers, reflect standard patterns of provocation and border fortification rather than invasion preparations. Pyongyang continues to reject dialogue overtures from South Korean President Lee Jae Myung while reinforcing its nuclear posture, yet maintains the 1953 armistice framework amid robust U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral defense coordination. Traders assign 98% probability to no invasion before 2027 due to these deterrence dynamics and the absence of large-scale troop movements or crossing attempts. Potential shifts could arise from escalation in DMZ incidents, leadership signaling changes, or external shocks altering risk calculations.