North Korea’s May 2026 constitutional amendments, which removed all references to reunification and explicitly defined its territory as bordering the Republic of Korea to the south, represent the primary driver behind trader expectations that an invasion remains unlikely before 2027. These changes codified the “two hostile states” framework first articulated by Kim Jong Un in late 2023 and reinforced at the February 2026 Workers’ Party Congress, signaling Pyongyang’s strategic pivot toward northern partnerships with Russia and China rather than direct confrontation. Routine short-range ballistic missile tests in April 2026, while demonstrating military capability, have not been accompanied by unusual troop movements or invasion preparations. South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung administration has simultaneously advanced engagement overtures and peaceful coexistence measures, further reducing immediate escalation risks in the eyes of market participants assessing the current diplomatic and military posture.