North Korea’s adoption of a “two hostile states” doctrine, formal constitutional changes recognizing South Korea as a separate adversary, and pivot toward deepened ties with Russia and China have anchored trader expectations against a full-scale invasion before 2027. Kim Jong Un has prioritized irreversible nuclear consolidation and selective diplomacy with Washington over military unification efforts, while routine ballistic missile tests remain calibrated responses to U.S.-South Korea exercises rather than precursors to ground operations. The U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance continues to provide credible deterrence, and Pyongyang shows no signs of the large-scale mobilization or logistics buildup required for a major offensive. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sharp U.S. policy reversal creating perceived alliance weakness, or a major miscalculation amid heightened tensions near the DMZ, though both remain low-probability outcomes within the current timeframe.