As president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars prosecution on existing charges except for insurrection or treason until his term ends in 2030. South Korean courts have responded by indefinitely postponing trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and development-related graft. No new indictments or events have breached this protection in recent months, while Lee has prioritized diplomacy and approved judicial reforms amid limited opposition traction on impeachment petitions. Traders therefore assign "No" a 90.1% implied probability, reflecting the structural barriers to arrest before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$319,630 KL.
$319,630 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$319,630 KL.
$319,630 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars prosecution on existing charges except for insurrection or treason until his term ends in 2030. South Korean courts have responded by indefinitely postponing trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and development-related graft. No new indictments or events have breached this protection in recent months, while Lee has prioritized diplomacy and approved judicial reforms amid limited opposition traction on impeachment petitions. Traders therefore assign "No" a 90.1% implied probability, reflecting the structural barriers to arrest before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Khối lượng
$319,630Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars prosecution on existing charges except for insurrection or treason until his term ends in 2030. South Korean courts have responded by indefinitely postponing trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and development-related graft. No new indictments or events have breached this protection in recent months, while Lee has prioritized diplomacy and approved judicial reforms amid limited opposition traction on impeachment petitions. Traders therefore assign "No" a 90.1% implied probability, reflecting the structural barriers to arrest before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$319,630Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84 that bars prosecution on existing charges except for insurrection or treason until his term ends in 2030. South Korean courts have responded by indefinitely postponing trials on prior allegations including election-law violations and development-related graft. No new indictments or events have breached this protection in recent months, while Lee has prioritized diplomacy and approved judicial reforms amid limited opposition traction on impeachment petitions. Traders therefore assign "No" a 90.1% implied probability, reflecting the structural barriers to arrest before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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